To see whether a sector will gradually resume activity or not, 3 criteria must be checked:

  1. Risk of transmission (including the ease of implementing mitigation measures)
  2. Expected impact on the sector of continued lockdown (including prior vulnerability)
  3. Value of the sector to the economy (e.g. contribution to GDP, multiplier effects, export earnings)

NB – The criteria themselves are ranked subject to their priority.

Sectors where there is a low risk of transmission, or where it can be easily mitigated, that will also suffer the most from continued lockdown and that contributes a high value to the economy, will be prioritized.

  1. Economic value at risk
    • Sectoral contribution to GDP
    • Employment
    • Export earnings (fx)
    • Prevalence of SMEs and informal sector
    • Linkages to the rest of the economy
    • Is it an enabling industry?
  2. Transmission risks
    • Nature of work
    • Profile of workforce
    • Geographic location of workforce
    • Practical mitigation measures
    • Feasibility of mitigation measures
  3. Economic stress
    • Not presently operating
    • Facing imminent retrenchment
    • Facing imminent firm closures
    • Facing permanent and irreversible damage
    • Jobs at stake

Industries that return to work first should:

  1. Have acceptably low transmission risk (or be able to attain this through mitigation measures) and
  2. Be of critical value to the economy or
  3. Be under severe near-term economic stress

This article is based on an extract from a draft government document