To see whether a sector will gradually resume activity or not, 3 criteria must be checked:
- Risk of transmission (including the ease of implementing mitigation measures)
- Expected impact on the sector of continued lockdown (including prior vulnerability)
- Value of the sector to the economy (e.g. contribution to GDP, multiplier effects, export earnings)
NB – The criteria themselves are ranked subject to their priority.
Sectors where there is a low risk of transmission, or where it can be easily mitigated, that will also suffer the most from continued lockdown and that contributes a high value to the economy, will be prioritized.
- Economic value at risk
- Sectoral contribution to GDP
- Employment
- Export earnings (fx)
- Prevalence of SMEs and informal sector
- Linkages to the rest of the economy
- Is it an enabling industry?
- Transmission risks
- Nature of work
- Profile of workforce
- Geographic location of workforce
- Practical mitigation measures
- Feasibility of mitigation measures
- Economic stress
- Not presently operating
- Facing imminent retrenchment
- Facing imminent firm closures
- Facing permanent and irreversible damage
- Jobs at stake
Industries that return to work first should:
- Have acceptably low transmission risk (or be able to attain this through mitigation measures) and
- Be of critical value to the economy or
- Be under severe near-term economic stress
This article is based on an extract from a draft government document